Envisioning the Third Offset – Essay Contest

Atlantic Council’s Art of Future Warfare project held an essay competition titled: Envisioning the Third Offset: The Future of the American Way of War. The winners were announced at the 2016 Global Strategy Forum: America’s Role in a Changing World which took place May 2 – 3, 2016. Project Director and Nonresident Senior Fellow August Cole announced the competition winner, interviewed Deputy Secretary of Defense Robert Work, and presented the Secretary with twenty of the essays.

The Art of the Future Warfare project was created to stimulate warfighters and policy makers imaginations with works of fiction and art.

The Art of the Future on YouTube

In November 2014, the Department of Defense announced the Third Offset Strategy as a means to gain overwhelming advantage in future wars. The Third offset consists of human–computer collaboration to meld human reasoning with computing power to enhance space, air, sea, undersea, ground, and cyber operations. The first offset was based on nuclear weapons and the second offset employed precision guided munitions and stealth technology.

The Third Offset Strategy has five components: Autonomous Learning Systems (e.g., new signals acquisition, analysis, and attack in real or near real-time), Human-Machine Collaboration (e.g., automated executive able to accelerate human’s observe-orient-decide-act loop), Assisted Human Operations (e.g., exoskeletons), Manned-Unmanned Combat Teaming (e.g., swarming drones assisting manned planes), Hardened and Network-Enabled Autonomous Weapons (e.g., automating diversity and encryption to secure battle networks in denied environments.)

Our entry, Envisioning the Third Offset — Conflict in the South China Sea did not win. We suspect it was because it was too much like a fictionalized Concept of Operations rather than the literature other contestants submitted. Their work is available on the site. Our entry will be posted shortly.

New Post Due Shortly

We submitted a Small Business Innovative Research proposal to the US Navy at the end of September. The research involved Bayesian regression. We compiled substantive data on various approaches. A new post will appear shortly highlighting our findings. Our embarkation on a second business enterprise occupied our time during October and November.

Established About Page

Please check out the About page that gives contact and services information. I manage Renormalization Group LLC. Renormalization Group LLC performs systems engineering consulting services: proposal evaluation and consultation, systems and performance analysis, and technical marketing. Renormalization Group LLC would like to provide these services for your company, laboratory or center.

We have experience with commercial, military and medical systems and hope to expand our service scope with your help. Please check our Areas of Expertise, Profile, Qualifications and Employment History to see what we can do for you.


We are still coming to grips with how to layout the website, what to include and how often to update the site. I foresee a layout that I’ll head towards but it will take a while getting there.

What I hope to post on a regular but paced schedule are capsule summaries of journal articles of interest to the engineering community (I will include references when the articles are not freely available on-line as links). I may also post brief summaries of articles from some of my hobbies such as keeping up with Quantum Gravity. I am just an outside observer in QG.

In both cases, I’ll try to stick to articles that are accessible (those are the only kind I understand) and relevant. I’ll probably use categories: Background Reading and Interesting Concepts for engineering articles and Things to Contemplate for those and other articles.

I may also include useful reference text recommendations from time to time under the Background Reading category. Starting up a small business is intriguing, somewhat expensive and holds a lot of promise for the future. I’ll keep you apprised of my progress with ‘Perspectives’ posts.